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There is a rumor in Davos that Greece is getting ready to announce a debt deal either today or over the weekend.  We've heard this last weekend but a deal would be a voluntary default and all eyes would then switch to Portugal.  Portugal is expected to have huge losses to GDP in 2012.

Tags: 2012, deal, debt, forum, greece, weekend

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Now, is this priced in?

You might see a small pop off a deal just from short covering....but Portugal bond yields have been spiking over the last few weeks.  That could be the next country to worry about.  What if they want a debt deal as well?  Europe needs to be careful.

Santelli Sounds Off

the numbers behind the US Debt Ceiling Rise. Focusing for two minutes on what this practically means for every man, woman, child, and politician, the shouting Chicagoan points out that when the US breaches this new limit then the world's entire population will be on the hook for $2,346 each (and $52,409 per US person).

That's what they said last week and it didn't happen. I think it probably is priced in since the market has been rallying on "Hopes" of a deal being done. If bondholders voluntarily agree to the haircut it wont trigger the credit default swaps used to insure the debt.

Foreign Office sources say Merkel now thinks Greece will default.

From the bbc
Portuguese 5Y bond yields just broke to Euro-era record levels at over 22.5% taking then up to the same levels at which Greece traded just four short months ago. Ironically, Bloomberg notes that:
European leaders won’t finalize Greece’s second aid program today because talks with banks over debt reduction aren’t completed, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said

Also the Baltic dry index decline could be signaling a market decline 

Today's decline is due to no deal in Greece and the Portugal situation

Very strong market right now Tim. Still a lot of buyers. Not afraid of anything it seems. 

I agree. The market is looking very resilient. It tested the 1300 level on the S&P500 and held up nicely. 

I believe it is due to the perception that someone will step in and fix the problems on the hands.  There are not new issues which the market should be scared of.  I am not a genius or fortune teller so any assuarance will be provided. Good Trading~~

There is still no Greece deal, I don't trust anything until it is approved by the EU and all the countries.

from Reuters, which reports that the latest out of Greece is a proposal for even greater cuts for creditors than previously expected. From Reuters: "Greece's private sector creditors could take a loss of more than 70 percent in a planned debt swap, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Tuesday. 

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