Hyperdynamics Corporation (HDY) - Oil Reserves in Offshore Guinea

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Permalink Reply by Whiteface88 on May 21, 2012 at 7:49pm

Brad,

Thanks for the insider info.  I've been trying to accumulate free shares over the last year.  Was doing good until I got caught with the 'dry well' crash.  Since that, I've been looking for the bottom.  Last Friday I decided I would  wait for rise back throught 10 day MA. I saw your insider buyer info this past weekend and this reinforced my thinking it might be good time to back, start trading, and hopefully build up some free shares.   Bought back in at lunch today at 0.72.  Hoping we'll get a nice little rise over the next few days.  Thanks again.   

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Permalink Reply by Brad on May 21, 2012 at 10:59pm

Know the landscape with this one, at least for the short term. It's been a long time since technical indicators have meant much. The volume was still very low today, less than half of the lower end of it's normal trading range and I suspect as long as the volume stays low it will continue to make volitile moves. In the past it has been heavily manipulated and although it's been declining, the short interest is still pretty substantial. I added a small amount today but to be honest, I held out for the pullbacks that didn;t come today. I'll be looking for opportunities to add tomorrow. Of course to anyone reading, I remind you my intent at this point is to long, although I will keep trading all but my core as opportunities present.

This stock can be explosive, and that means in both directions. My risk appraisal takes in  a number of factors, including the fact that Guinea is a fragile democracy init's initial stages, and that this is an oil exploration play and as such it's highly specultive.

Stock TA has the next resistance pegged @ .80

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=HDY

Bar chart has resistance levels pegged at .83 and .88, with support pegged at .67 and .56 (yikes!)

http://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=HDY

 

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Permalink Reply by Whiteface88 on May 22, 2012 at 7:38pm

Rats.  Didn't yet put my planned 0.99 sell limit........Was away today and missed.....

Was that shorts covering at 10am this morning?  

I'm still hopeful that some good news will come out in remaining 10 business days to 'respond to NYSDE' and spook more shorting. 

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Permalink Reply by Brad on May 23, 2012 at 10:42am

by 'NYSDE' do you mean the NYSE non-compliance notice? They have 6 months to regain compliance before any further action is taken.

If the price closes above $1 on May 31st, they will still be in for consideration for continued inclusion in the Russell Indexes although they might drop from the R2000 to the R3000 unless they regain some more territory above $1 (I suspect in the $130 range to remain in the R2000, but the calculation changes every year). For more info on the Russell Indexes you can google them.

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Permalink Reply by Brad on May 23, 2012 at 2:40pm

Correction on the Russell Indexes. From their website

• Rank the U.S. common stocks from largest to smallest market capitalization at each annual reconstitution period (May 31).
• Top 3,000 stocks become the Russell 3000® Index.
• Largest 1,000 stocks become the Russell 1000® Index.
• Next 2,000 stocks become the Russell 2000® Index.
• The smallest 1,000 in the Russell 2000 Index plus the next smallest 1,000 comprise the Russell Microcap Index.

So HDY could drop into the microcap, depending on the m/c on May 31st, but it must have a share value of at least $1 to be included in any Russell Index

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Permalink Reply by Whiteface88 on May 23, 2012 at 12:58pm

Thanks Brad. 

Yes, I did mean NYSE.  My understanding was that, in addition to the '6 month compliance rule', HDY needs to respond within 10 business days to the notification explaining what plans they will take to get back into compliance. 

In any event, I sold 70% of shares I bought Monday for 0.72 today for 0.9 an am waiting for another dip to buy back in. 

What do you think is holding HDY up today with general market down?  Shorts covering? 

I'm hoping it will settle back in the 0.7's so I can put my principle back into HDY.  

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Permalink Reply by Brad on May 23, 2012 at 1:37pm

Another two insider purchases, both on the BOD

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8284721

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8284726

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Permalink Reply by Whiteface88 on May 23, 2012 at 9:32pm

Thanks Brad.

Seems like BOD are confident price will rise.  With this info bought back my 70% before close today at 0.92.  Will ride this out for a weeks and see if we get a nice run up. 

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Permalink Reply by Brad on Thursday

Let's see if it can cross over the 50 sma (and then move on to fill the gap)

Chart source: http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HDY&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Also keep an eye on the daily short volume. A word of caution though about the charts in this link. They only use data from EDGX so any shorting activity can be skewed if the shorting on that exchange is higher (lower) than shorting on other exchanges (as is not uncommon with EDGX). Remember too that daily short volume is not the same as short interest.

http://www.shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=hdy

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Permalink Reply by Brad on Friday

another insider purchase, this time by the CFO

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8287416

 

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