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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 22, 2012 at 6:55pm

NYSE volume was the 3rd lowest of the year so far today, Financials led the drop in stocks, Gold (and to a lesser extent Silver) was the story of the day as it exploded over $1780 intraday (now up over $55 in the last 3 days) although the USD did nothing .

 

The S&P 500 has had the best start to the year since 1997, and Gas Prices are accelerating rapidly. Two interesting analogs may be useful to think about the next moves in these markets and whether we see divergence

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Permalink Reply by Stocks To Buy on February 22, 2012 at 7:31pm

Well I think Wall St is net long stocks so if we have any sort of negative surprise, we will see heavy volume on the downside.

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 22, 2012 at 7:47pm

I agree Tim, all the cash on the sidelines I'm wondering if everyone (I know I am) is just waiting for a pull back at not many will buy at these levels. 

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 24, 2012 at 8:51pm

Silver and Gold remain the major outperformers year-to-date but the rest of commodities - most notably oil is catching up very fast having over taken stocks this week.

And as a hint to anyone who hasn't jumped on this tidal movement yet, one thing to note is that unlike stocks, commodities always have the risk of marginal or weak hands being shaken out via CME...margin hikes.

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 27, 2012 at 12:55pm

Oil prices will become the next risk item for market participants. this is because oil prices are already approaching levels where worries have occurred in the past (and the velocity of the move is also empirically troublesome.)

For every $10 rise in bbl It marks GDP by .2% points. 

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Permalink Reply by Nick on February 27, 2012 at 1:17pm

Today looks good though, oil is taking a break while stocks are in the green. A few more of these and oil won't be such a risk, at least in the short term

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 27, 2012 at 4:45pm

S&P Cuts Greece To (Selective) Default From CC

If Greece were to withdraw from eurozone membership (which is not our base-case assumption) and introduce a new local currency, we would reevaluate our T&C assessment on Greece to reflect our view of the likelihood of the Greek sovereign and its central bank restricting nonsovereign access to foreign exchange needed for debt service.

Translation: Greece better have that PSI in the bag or else the "Selective" goes away and "Greece would face an imminent outright payment default."

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 27, 2012 at 5:26pm

First Selective Default of a Eurozone nation in history

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 27, 2012 at 6:57pm

Checking out some technicals on Robs site a break above 1370 could be a possible 1400 S&P wow. Unbelievable

Permalink Reply by Richard on February 27, 2012 at 10:06pm

Its kinda hard to believe all the good news about the economy getting better since here in Northern CA things seem to be getting worse. The city I live in was downgraded by Moodys and may take the first steps in filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy tomorrow. Haha If it happens we will be the largest city to declare bankruptcy in American history.

Unemployment around here is about double the nations rate and lots of jobs are still being cut including the US post office shutting down their processing center.

So how are the cities you guys live in seem to be doing? Are things really getting better and California is just screwed up. Haha

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 28, 2012 at 2:47pm

Apple now has a bigger market cap than the ENTIRE S&P retail sector, lol no joke 

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Permalink Reply by Danny on February 28, 2012 at 3:04pm

Richard yea I'm sure Cali isn't the only one. Businesses are dealing with so many regulations that are really starting to affect things. This year alone I have had multiple new issues with my merchants and credit card processors:banks due to new regulations that were not in place last year. It's never easy is it

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