W or V Shaped Recovery?

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Permalink Reply by Bhaskar Kolluri on October 1, 2009 at 11:20am

I think we will have a W shaped recovery, because what ever the recovery we saw was all artificial (may be not all) and talking to some of my friends who have small businesses here in Pheonix, they think that the commercial real estate hasnt hit the fan yet, and if that happens there will be another burst in the bubble...

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Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on October 1, 2009 at 11:25am

I don't know what letter it will be, but we haven't seen the worst yet, in my opinion. Think about half a million people being fired every week! How can that be good for the economy? Business is certainly not expanding, or it would be hiring people or firing fewer people. The banks have a lot of losses they haven't owned up to, the FDIC is running out of money to support small banks. There is no lending yet from the banks, etc, etc.

This may be a temporary pullback to go higher, but only a bit more in my opinion. The only thing I think Bob Prechter of EWI seems to be wrong about, as far as I can tell, is that there is still a lot of money on the sidelines or in bonds.

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Permalink Reply by WallStreet123 on October 1, 2009 at 11:44am

dont know.... but all i can say is the market today is HORRIBLE... losing a ridiculous amount of money... are you all sitting at losses today?

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Permalink Reply by Sean Singh on October 1, 2009 at 1:00pm

Pretty much... the only stock that up on is CHTP.. today is not a good day. I think it'll be W road to recovery.

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Permalink Reply by Joseph Avendano on October 1, 2009 at 12:24pm

Today I woke up to a big instant loss in one minute in Activision :/ Not the best way to wake up.

I think we'll be seeing more of a W shaped recovery.... if one's iminent anyways.

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Permalink Reply by Michael George on October 1, 2009 at 12:36pm

I'm expecting a W with a bigger drop and a wider bottom.

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Permalink Reply by chris patel on October 1, 2009 at 1:06pm

i hope for a V recovery but looking at how unemployment plays out tomorrow with expected 9.8% might bring the stocks lower another 100 points or so. Let's see.

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Permalink Reply by WallStreet123 on October 1, 2009 at 1:12pm

i think we will be having a W recovery... i've been buying more shares of what i already own today to lower my costs.. even though they keep dropping. i think im going to wait till tomorrow and see what will happen before buying more now. expecting a bad day tomorrow too

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Permalink Reply by William Daniel on October 21, 2009 at 9:49am

what are you buying?

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Permalink Reply by carmanx on October 1, 2009 at 2:34pm

As a small business owner (furniture stores in New England), I can tell you that the recovery has not yet started for us. I will say that the deterioration appears to have slowed, but there is no growth yet. We cut 30% of our labor force over the last couple of years and remain on a hiring and raise freeze. Until the employment numbers improve there is no recovery in our little part of the world.

Oh! You meant the stock market! Who the heck knows!

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Permalink Reply by William Daniel on October 21, 2009 at 9:49am

its okay to say "W" shaped recovery.. because we do have the TARP being taken out here pretty soon and then Inflation.. and soon to come Federal Rate Changes. Its going to be a really bumpy ride.

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Permalink Reply by Matt Lauchaire on October 21, 2009 at 12:22pm

I think that this market has done the complete opposite of what the "experts" say. I'm a contrarian at heart; when I started hearing talk a couple months ago about a W shaped recovery being out of the question, that's when I worry about it happening. Just like when I hear the "experts" say that this will be a V shaped recovery, that's when you have to worry. Remember, if the majority says V shaped recovery, then they're probably already fully invested. Because we're in a confirmed uptrend, I think that all dips into oversold territory must be bought, at least until it stops working. Don't listen to the "experts", do your own chart analysis and come to your own conclusion. Let the charts tell you what's going to happen.

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