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Where is the bottom in the stock market?  This is a question we've heard many times over the last few years.  Going back to the fall of 2008, the stock market has made 4 significant drops which were very violent.  These are the drops that you look back at and say " I wish I would have bought stocks."  

 

Well everyone, if you sold out and are looking for a spot to get back into the stock market during a violent decline, check out the U.S New Highs - New Lows chart on http://stockcharts.com

 

When the RSI of the $USHL hits 30 or below and the $USHL itself drops below -1400-1500, it is time to start looking for a spot to buy buy buy.  Check out the chart below.

 

Each plunge has been followed by a large violent rally.

 

 

 

Updated USHL Chart - 2/1/12



 

Tags: $ushl, 2011, 2012, bottom, market, stock, stocks, ushl

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Stmicroelectonics is the company I like the most!

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/stm

 

I'll  buy this company as soon as the indicators get oversold.

 

USHL ended up being -239.  This index updates after the close of each trading day when all new highs and lows are calculated in.  Updated chart above

Back down the 200day

Looking at the chart , small 5-7 days rally is posiible when $USHL drops to -500 area?

Shaul, that might be a theory worth backtesting by looking at what has happened historically after -500 occurred. But from memory, I think the -500 troughs in the above chart coincide with triggering week-long rallies after our August and September lows.

We might see a rally tomorrow because of the holidays. Today's new has had more than a week to be digested and factored in. There were no surprises really, there is no way the current brand of republicans would willfully agree to tax hikes. 

Yes, we will likely see a small rally this week: a meeting will be held on Thursday, November, 24th. Italian Prime Minister, Sarkozy and Angela Merkel will meet in Strasbourg and discuss about Euro recovery measures.   

The ushl actually went up yesterday ... We'll have to see what today brings

Really bad german auction, worst auction since the start of the euro. If Germany has to buy its own bonds, it is frightening to think how other European nations, including France, will fare at bond auctions in the coming weeks.

 

 

$USHL fell down to -337.

From mid-Aug to mid Sept USHL 3 times fell down to -522, -313, -456 and we had 3 small rallies .... wondering what we have this time ....

$USHL -337 just before Thanksgiving. We're getting to that point where we might soon be due for a retracement upward (by 1155 perhaps). This said, if it is a Wave 3, the trend down will resume. 

I think the technicals will play themselves out irrespective of policy right here. Policy relates more to timing and triggering the moves. The momentum is too strong. Plus, I think uncertainty is a sentiment and temperament. It will take a year for it to shake itself out, including ultimately bottoming convincingly.

Interestingly, domestically, in 1982 there were 60 moderates (people willing to vote for policy by either party) on either side of the aisle. In 1994, this number in the Senate dropped to 26. By 2010, there were 0 left in the Senate. This is really the key reason why there will continue to be paralysis and uncertainty; and it explains the S&P downgrade, which primarily cited the dysfunction. The election year will not help matters.

Interestingly, domestically, in 1982 there were 60 moderates (people willing to vote for policy by either party) on either side of the aisle. In 1994, this number in the Senate dropped to 26. By 2010, there were 0 left in the Senate. This is really the key reason why there will continue to be paralysis and uncertainty; and it explains the S&P downgrade, which primarily cited the dysfunction. The election year will not help matters.

 

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