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Where the Markets Are Headed
Latest Activity: Apr 11
Fibonnaci in Nature
Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H Nov 5, 2013.
Started by Terry H. Last reply by Brian Augustine Nov 5, 2013.
Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H May 7, 2013.
Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H Apr 18, 2013.
Posted in on April 11, 2014 - 10:40am
The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place. But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012. We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook is now turning bearish.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals since early March. They were not dissuaded by the $SPX move to new all- time highs.
Market breadth has been volatile. For the record, both breadth indicators are back on sell signals.
Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have still not completely bought into the bearish argument. $VIX has spiked up towards 16 several times, but each time it has closed back lower, and the market has rallied. The bearish signal would come if $VIX closed clearly above 16.
In summary, the breakdown by $SPX is bearish. But it would be much more convincing if it were accompanied by a sell signal in volatility.
If you want to understand why the Fed's monetary policy has not been working, read this paper read last year at the San Francisco Fed:
DJIA Inflation Adjusted Chart since 1982 to Oct 23, 2013.
I'm bullish on the market into year end - Gold is looking strong again as well!
A thorough talk on EWI's interpretation of where we are in all markets and the economy and why from a historical perspective with charts, and an explanation of why they didn't think the US stock market would go this high.http://www.elliottwave.com/club/analyst-videos/ewi/steve-hochberg-1...
Rhee, for a noobie like me, I was wondering if you could possibly post a current stock chart that shows the sweet spot you are talking about. I feel like I have a good number of tools at my disposal to make an informed decision but I'm not quite there in terms of using them correctly. I understand that "the trend is your friend" and not to "catch a falling knife" but I'm still having some trouble making wise decisions. Any insight would be appreciated. Thank you!
Same guy who said "The subprime mortgage crisis is contained."
"Bernanke reportedly told a group of bond dealers and investors that, unlike some other Fed officials, he doesn’t see current bond purchases as creating an asset bubble."http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-may-push-back-against-haw...
I'm with you Anmol, but it's only scary if you're long ;)
For reference...1929 crash
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