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Market Outlook

Where the Markets Are Headed

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Latest Activity: Apr 11

Fibonnaci in Nature

Fibonnaci in Nature

Discussion Forum

TLT/TBT Long Bond Long and Short 3 Replies

Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H Nov 5, 2013.

SPY--S&P 500 9 Replies

Started by Terry H. Last reply by Brian Augustine Nov 5, 2013.

USO and UNG 4 Replies

Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H May 7, 2013.

QQQ Nasdaq 100 5 Replies

Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H Apr 18, 2013.

TNA/TZA/IWM (Russell Index) 2 Replies

Started by Terry H. Last reply by Terry H Apr 18, 2013.

Comment Wall


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Comment by Terry H on April 11, 2014 at 12:44pm

Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/11/14

By Lawrence G. McMillan

The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place.  But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012.  We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook is now turning bearish.

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals since early March. They were not dissuaded by the $SPX move to new all- time highs.

Market breadth has been volatile. For the record, both breadth indicators are back on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have still not completely bought into the bearish argument. $VIX has spiked up towards 16 several times, but each time it has closed back lower, and the market has rallied.  The bearish signal would come if $VIX closed clearly above 16.

In summary, the breakdown by $SPX is bearish.  But it would be much more convincing if it were accompanied by a sell signal in volatility.

Comment by Terry H on November 2, 2013 at 9:19pm

If you want to understand why the Fed's monetary policy has not been working, read this paper read last year at the San Francisco Fed:

Comment by Terry H on October 25, 2013 at 9:47pm

DJIA Inflation Adjusted Chart since 1982 to Oct 23, 2013.

Comment by Stocks To Buy on October 17, 2013 at 11:00am

I'm bullish on the market into year end - Gold is looking strong again as well!

Comment by Terry H on August 30, 2013 at 10:38pm

A thorough talk on EWI's interpretation of where we are in all markets and the economy and why from a historical perspective with charts, and an explanation of why they didn't think the US stock market would go this high.

Comment by Terry H on April 19, 2013 at 2:56pm

Comment by James D. on February 24, 2013 at 9:10pm

Rhee, for a noobie like me, I was wondering if you could possibly post a current stock chart that shows the sweet spot you are talking about.  I feel like I have a good number of tools at my disposal to make an informed decision but I'm not quite there in terms of using them correctly.  I understand that "the trend is your friend" and not to "catch a falling knife" but I'm still having some trouble making wise decisions.  Any insight would be appreciated.  Thank you!

Comment by Terry H on February 24, 2013 at 6:53pm

Same guy who said "The subprime mortgage crisis is contained."

"Bernanke reportedly told a group of bond dealers and investors that, unlike some
other Fed officials, he doesn’t see current bond purchases as creating an asset

Comment by Terry H on February 22, 2013 at 8:54pm

I'm with you Anmol, but it's only scary if you're long ;)

Comment by Terry H on March 16, 2012 at 11:44pm

For reference...1929 crash


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