Market Outlook

Replies to This Discussion

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 3, 2011 at 9:32pm

Here is IWM...small caps...Daily Chart. This looks to me like an ending diagonal, formed when price has moved too far, too fast, and is the 5th and final wave.  Notice that it is pointed upward. When this ends, price should drop  like a rock, and a good trade will be TZA, which moves well.

 

 

 

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 3, 2011 at 10:28pm

Of course, be on your toes to go short if there is a breakdown under the current support levels.

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 6, 2011 at 1:50pm

Here's an update of the IWM...small caps...daily chart. I think an ending diagonal is forming, which means if it breaks through its support, it will drop hard.

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 12, 2011 at 12:18pm

I think this is a good post by Corey Rosenbloom of www.afraidtotrade.com, especially for the fundamentalists.

 

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/clear-bearish-signals-developing-from...

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 12, 2011 at 7:52pm

I've been looking at the stock market indices on different time frames, and they are all coming up against long-term, ie, weekly/monthly resistance. That is probably why there is consolidation here. 

Looking at the inverse ETFs helps to analyze the indices as well. I think the leveraged inverse of the Nasdaq 100, QID is basing now on the 60-minute chart and is about to form the right side of the base. See what you think.

 

 

 

Permalink Reply by Stocks To Buy on May 12, 2011 at 8:45pm

So if QID is basing and about to go up, that means the market should drop.  That would make sense given we are in the summer months.  I am still trying to figure out where we go during the fall.  I think this summer will be very volatile!

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 12, 2011 at 9:00pm

It should mean that. Commodities might be the "canary in the coal mine."

Top MemberPermalink Reply by Terry H on May 14, 2011 at 9:56am

Looking at the IWM  weekly chart (inverse leveraged is TZA), I believe it is now in the last stages of its uptrend. I have labeled the uptrend according to my Elliott wave count, which could be wrong. That will happen once the ending diagonal (see the angled move in the trendlines at the top near the letter C 5) has completed. Then IWM should drop precipitously as Primary wave 3 begins.  Also notice the MACD sloping down.

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