A Weekly Look at the S&P 500

Comment

Comment by Terry H on March 12, 2010 at 8:59am

Yes. Even 3 out of 4 "experts" interviewed at the end of the day yesterday by Bob Pisani on CNBC were bearish. The bearish fundamental position, that the economy doesn't warrant a rally because any upside we're seeing is a result of help from the government and will go away if and when the government removes its help, has kept most "logical" money out of the market. Also, the large number of unemployed, the municipalities running out of money, the large number of foreclosures and bank closures, etc. Nevertheless, the price of shares continue to rise into thin air. Even on a technical basis, the market prices are moving into overbought territory relative to their moving averages on a daily basis.

Comment by Stocks To Buy on March 12, 2010 at 8:32am

I think the lack of volume is due to people not believing the rally. Talked to a friend the other day who was trying to figure out why his porfolio ( which is being managed ) has been flat over the past 4 months. His money manager has him mostly in cash waiting for a dip.

He then asked me if I can manage his money for him but I declined....only do my own :)

Comment by Terry H on March 11, 2010 at 10:51pm

From my limited (1 year) trading experience, I think this market could go either way as of today's breakout from the triangle. This is based on the uncanny way it has of going up by breaking through the bears' stop, so short squeeze after short squeeze, and then some money managers buying. There has been no confirming volume for a while, but it is possible that with the January high being taken out on the S&P, some fund managers will be inspired to add money to the market. This could change with any really bad news, in which case the bears will jump all over the market. So I think it is just best to go with the flow.

My interpretation from July was that a measured move of an inverted head and shoulders would take us to 123 on SPY. Maybe this will happen.

Comment by Stocks To Buy on March 11, 2010 at 7:17pm

I think we will make our way toward 1200 in the coming month or months but then we will sell off in June and July. If this happens, 2/3's of a head and shoulders formation would be created with only the right shoulder left. Politics and Fed Rate hikes will come into play later in 2010.

Comment by Matt Lauchaire on March 11, 2010 at 4:53pm