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While the mood is certainly and undeniably bearish, I am a contrarian and want to show how being a contrarian has worked recently. Divergences on the MACD and Force Index helped to call the highs in April eight trading days before the Flash Crash. Japanese Candlestick Reversals have also worked well when volume is greater than the previous day. If history can teach us anything, it is to put personal feelings aside and to read the chart correctly. I was as bearish as they come for the second half of April and well into May, but I'm there are just way too many people selling short. Classic tops in the market are caused by excessive bullishness the whole way down. (1929, 2000, 2007)
If the market consolidated for a few days and created a Bullish Candlestick with a sharp increase in volume, it would be done on a momentum and volume bullish divergence.
The biggest moves throughout history come when the fewest amount of people participate in it.

Any feedback or questions are always welcome.


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Comment by Stocks To Buy on July 13, 2010 at 3:05pm
Turns out that was the bottom...good job guys
Comment by Matt Lauchaire on June 30, 2010 at 10:39am
Yes great point Rob about the Head and Shoulders, I forgot to draw the neckline. At this point, there aren't many people who know what's going to happen. I just look to the charts for clarity. I don't think we will break the neckline either, but if we do, it will also break through these Bullish Divergences. I think the bull market has to be given the benefit of the doubt until we see these Bullish Divergences broken.

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Comment by Rob on June 30, 2010 at 9:12am
Nice Job Matt and I agree with everything. Actually on the videos I have been posting on Tim's Blogspot page I have been calling this since before we hit 1040 the second time. I have two things to add.

First yesterday had the possibility of being and exhaustion gap considering the volume.

Second is I see a head and shoulders pattern from mid January 2009 and we are right on the neckline if we complete the head and shoulders we could go 870, That being said I don't believe it will complete due to these divergences and also the neckline is flat where a bearish neckline would be angled down.


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Comment by Terry H on June 29, 2010 at 10:52pm
Nice analysis with candlesticks. I can see a reversal from the lows today if one is going to happen in order to fill this morning's gap. The TRIN was high as well, which might help with an oversold bounce.

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